In an attempt generate revenue and streamline the process of maintaining selected highways, the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) launched a Toll-Operate-Transfer (TOT) model. Under this model, the right to collect a user fee or toll on national highway stretches that have been built through public funding has been proposed a 30-year period to developers and investors against an upfront lump-sum payment to the government. During the tenure of the contract, the operation and maintenance will be the responsibility of the developer.
NHAI carried out the bidding process to select a private partner to collect tolls, manage operations, maintain and transfer the project bundle comprising 9 stretches of highway with six in Andhra Pradesh and three in Gujarat.
Macquarie was one of the bidders and appointed Ramboll to conduct pre-bid traffic and revenue forecasting studies for the project.
Ramboll’s scope of work included taking video graphic traffic counts at and near existing or proposed toll plaza locations and a one-day Origin Destination (OD) survey.
Our experts also helped establish seasonality factors using available relevant data, estimated base year annual average daily traffic and reviewed past studies to determine traffic volumes for previous years.
In addition, our team identified competing routes and analysed the network conditions, traffic characteristics and the level of toll charged along with reviewing the effect of competing roads and their impact on the projected traffic.
OD data was analysed including matrices, regional distribution of traffic, commodity composition, top OD pairs and identified project influence area from analysis of travel pattern, traffic diversion analysis, etc.
Ramboll also carried out the estimation of traffic growth rates, toll-able traffic streams and toll revenue.
Identification of the key project influence areas, their socio-economic indicators’ analysis (past and future) and the estimation of past and future traffic demand elasticity for different vehicle categories were some of the challenges faced.